Private Water Fly Fishing » Economics

Are you about to lose Fly Fishing in the West FOREVER!

Dale Heinemann — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 21:48:19 +0000

Fly-fishing industry threatened by Congress

BOB MARSHALL, The Times-Picayune

Published 05:10 a.m., Tuesday, August 23, 2011

NEW ORLEANS (AP) — Sitting in Hall B of the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center last week surrounded by members of the $658 million fly-fishing industry he represents, Jim Klug considered the anti-environment campaign in Congress and had this advice for his fellow businessmen and sportsmen:

“They better wake up to what the House is trying to do before it’s too late,” said Klug, chairman of the American Fly Fishing Trade Association. “Our industry depends on a clean environment, and if you take that away, you don’t just take away a hobby and pastime, you take away entire industries.

“No one who cares about fishing or these industries can sit on the sidelines any more. Frankly, a lot of us have just been stunned.”

They are stunned by the comprehensive nature of the House attack and by the politicians leading it.

They were surprised by the billions cut from conservation programs because it made no accounting sense; the investment is a win for taxpayers because the industries the programs support return billions more to the treasury.

More frightening was the long-term agenda for the environment spelled out by the GOP majority in the dozens of policy riders attached to some bills. These included ordering federal agencies not to enforce regulations protecting streamside wetlands, waterfowl-nesting habitat, carbon pollution, pesticide application, roadside runoff and mountaintop mining, among others. These will have no effect on the deficit, but are merely million-dollar giveaways to favored industries.

Then there were the loud attacks against global-warming science and environmental regulatory action by the GOP’s leading presidential candidates, attacks filled with outright falsehoods.

This came the same week a peer-reviewed study published by the National Academy of Sciences warned the current rate of warming could result in the loss of more than half of all trout habitat in Western states during the next 70 years.

Polls show most sportsmen identify themselves as conservatives and Republicans. So this anti-environmental march by their party has left many of them stunned and angry, including Klug.

“I’ve always been a Montana Republican, and I never thought I would see the Republican Party doing this kind of stuff,” he said.

“I guess I think of myself as a Teddy Roosevelt Republican, someone who is conservative fiscally, but who cares about protecting the environment, protecting fish and wildlife, not just because it’s the right thing to do, but because it’s smart business, too.”

Klug said the attacks that began soon after the new House took office last January were so massive and unexpected, it took a few months for even his industry to understand the seriousness of the threat. But by the end of the recent debt-ceiling debate, when massive cuts were being demanded in conservation while billions in tax credits for oil and gas were being protected, the industry and individual sportsmen were waking up.

“We have to get involved in two challenges, policy and political,” he said.

The policy challenge, he said, is educating congressmen on the financial impact of cutting conservation programs and hindering green regulations on hundreds of businesses across the nation. In addition to famous tackle manufacturers, the AFFTA estimates there are 650 specialty fly shops in the United States, plus thousands of guides and outfitters that will feel the impacts of a declining environment. And if their business drops, so will thousands of other businesses that ride their economic coattails, including hotels, restaurants and travel.

The political challenge, Klug said, is getting those businesses as well as the nation’s 60 million anglers involved.

“During elections, it’s almost a prerequisite where I live for a candidate to have his or her picture taken fishing in a stream, holding up a trout, acting like they love fishing and hunting,” he said. “But we’ve seen now once they get into office, they vote against our interests in a big way.

“Well, we have to let them know we’re watching — we’re watching every day — and there will be consequences if they vote against our interests. They have to know a clean environment is not just the right thing to do, it’s the things we need to stay in business.”

It’s a powerful message, but there are troubling signs the political establishment doesn’t much care.

While sportsmen’s groups have joined mainline green organizations in lobbying Congress the past few months, the anti-environment riders and program cutbacks continued to flow in the House, some traditional sportsmen’s allies in the Senate have been breaking ranks, and the Obama administration has failed to keep some of the big green promises it made.

Klug admitted it all makes him nervous. He has a feeling the next months and years the industry that provides his living, and the sporting tradition he loves, will be in nothing less than a life-or-death struggle.

“Look, our sport and our industry depend on clean water and a clean environment,” he said. “If some of these things get through, frankly, we won’t be around much longer.

“That’s really the bottom line. That’s what’s at stake here.”

Water to be Next Big Issue in Upcoming Presidential Election

Dale Heinemann — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 20:11:49 +0000

We in the West and particularly those of us in New Mexico are accutely aware of the limited water resources available to sustain our present life style and that of a growing ecomomy. I saw this article earlier today and wanted to share it’s thoughts on water and politics with your:

Presidential race place to make water a priority

By WILLIAM MCKENZIE – The Dallas Morning News

The West is where most Americans increasingly choose to live. About one out of every three of us lives in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, California, Idaho, Oregon, Washington or Alaska. And many of those still-fast-growing states face serious water challenges.

“Water made the West. And its historic evaporation will unmake it – unless this generation is as creative as its forebears in finding sustainable ways to live within the 20-inch isohyet,” historian David M. Kennedy wrote in Stanford University’s alumni magazine back in 2008.

As Kennedy explained, a 20-inch isohyet is the boundary of an area that gets less than 20 inches of rain each year. That’s also the term meteorologists use to describe an arid region.

Kennedy’s point remains relevant, even more so.

Recurring droughts challenge the West. Droughts not only test the ability of arid metropolitan areas like San Antonio and Phoenix to deliver water to residents and businesses. They also threaten land management and agricultural production across the rural West.

Large swaths of the Texas Panhandle, New Mexico and southern Colorado are parched. Stock tanks have dried up, leaving cattle with no place to drink. In some places, the land is too dry for even weeds to grow.

Those parts that are not as parched grow crops that look like stubbles of golden-brown winter wheat. No wonder serious fires have roared across acres of Arizona and New Mexico. And smaller fires threaten acreage on farms and ranches.

That stark reality affects the rest of America because so much of our food comes from western states. If these conditions persist, water shortages will show up in our food bills.

The challenge of finding good water supplies is also a global reality. In places like northern Mexico or sub-Saharan Africa, water shortages or undrinkable water is a fact of life.

All the more reason for 2012 candidates, including President Barack Obama, to make water the next great ecological issue. With westerners like former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman and Texas Gov. Rick Perry either in the Republican race or likely to join it, you would think this would be a topic some candidates would feel in their bones.

In Perry’s case, he has never supported the kind of money needed to fund Texas’ 50-year water plan. But he has stuck his neck out to designate land for more reservoirs, which are politically unpopular but necessary water sources for Texas’ future.

What Perry, Huntsman and the rest of the GOP field should like is that water issues are largely state and local matters. Managing aquifers and rivers so humans and nature have enough to live on, devising the best conservation strategies and constructing water projects are the types of demands that require strong local and state voices. That’s true even in those places where the federal government plays a significant role because of public lands or water compacts among states.

Washington needs to play a new role, though. Congress should require states to create their own long-term water plans. Some have them, but not all do. And some of those created may be tucked away on dusty shelves and no longer realistic.

Federal officials should not dictate the plans. States should make the calls, because they know local issues best. But they must have plans to get any federal dollars for water proposals. Even 10th Amendment Republicans should be able to live with this kind of creative federalism.

First, though, water issues need a higher profile. The coming presidential race is the place to elevate them.

ABOUT THE WRITER

William McKenzie is an editorial columnist for The Dallas Morning News. Readers may write to him at the Dallas Morning News, Communications Center, Dallas, Texas 75265; e-mail: wmckenzie@dallasnews.com

Wall Street Journal says, “Time to Buy Real Estate”

Dale Heinemann — Sat, 04 Jun 2011 13:30:05 +0000

Whether you believe this article or not, it does pose a number of plausable potential contributions to an improvement in the housing market:

WEEKEND INVESTOR -The Wall Street Journal

JUNE 4, 2011

Why It’s Time To Buy

The Clouds Haven’t Quite Parted, But the Long-Term Case for Home Ownership Is Looking Stronger

By RUTH SIMON and JESSICA SILVER-GREENBERG

Back in June 2006, when the housing market peaked, the prospect of a five-year national housing bust seemed unimaginable to most people. And yet here we are, with the latest Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index showing that prices hit new bear-market lows, falling back to 2002 levels nationally and to 1990s levels in some battered regions.

Despite all the gloom, however, there are growing indications that it is a good time to buy. Mortgage rates, which fell to 4.55% for the week ending June 2, according to Freddie Mac, are near 50-year lows. Homes have become more affordable than they have been in years: According to Moody’s Analytics, the ratio of home prices to income is now 20.9% lower than the 15-year average through 2010, and 12.5% lower than the 1989-2004 average. A historic glut of homes, meanwhile, has created a buyer’s market: There were about 15 million vacant homes in the U.S. last year, according to John Burns Real Estate ConsultingInc.—some 3.1 million more than normal.

Such conditions might not last long. Moody’s Analytics predicts that the number of distressed sales will begin to fall in 2013, and that prices will begin to edge upward then. Home building is at a virtual standstill, so the supply overhang isn’t likely to get much worse. Meanwhile, demographic indicators such as “household formation”—the number of new households each year—are on the rise, and promise to take a bite out of the glut in coming years.

Lending

As rates hover near historic lows, experts expect banks to ease borrowing standards over time.

Psychology

If prices stabilize, it could tip the balance away from fear and pull more buyers back into the market.

Affordability

In several markets, it’s becoming cheaper to own than to rent.

Demographics

The rate of “household formation” is expected to climb in coming years.

Employment

The strength of the housing recovery depends on job growth.

View Full Image

Associated PressDallas

The upshot: “While we might not see rapid growth in the next couple of years, there are a tremendous number of positive signs that could lead to a rebound,” says Anthony Sanders, a real-estate finance professor at George Mason University.

The short-term outlook isn’t encouraging. Job growth remains weak, foreclosure sales are making up more of the market, and economists are predicting that home prices will fall more in the coming months.

But the long-term benefits of homeownership remain very much intact. For now, at least, you can deduct the mortgage interest on your taxes—a big perk for people in higher tax brackets. You get to paint your walls any color you wish, without having to clear it with a landlord. And assuming you can buy a home for about the same price as you can rent one, buying will give you the ability one day to live rent-free. Come retirement time, a paid-off mortgage means your monthly expenses are significantly reduced, and you have a chunk of equity to play with.

So what might the next five years look like? Once the foreclosure mess begins to clear up, say housing economists, the traditional drivers of the housing market—demographics, affordability, loan availability, employment and psychology—should take over.

Here is a glimmer of what the future may hold: While overall home prices fell by 7.5% in April over the same period a year earlier, according to CoreLogic, a Santa Ana, Calif., provider of real-estate data and analytics, if you exclude distressed sales, prices were off just 0.5%. So if you are in a market that isn’t battered by foreclosures, you may be close to a bottom already.

“The regular marketplace is hanging tough,” says CoreLogic chief economist Mark Fleming.

Here is a look at five key factors that will govern local markets over the next several years:

Demographics

Household formation fell during the economic downturn as a weak economy led some people to stay in school, double up with roommates or move in with family members. According to Moody’s Analytics, the number of new households renting or owning a home dropped to 578,000 in 2008 from nearly 2 million in 2005, just before the peak of the housing boom.

But household formation increased to nearly 950,000 last year, says Moody’s, and should average 1.2 million over the next decade.

That, combined with increased obsolescence and higher demand for second homes, should begin sopping up excess inventory in much of the country over the next two years, Moody’s says.

“Whatever the excess supply of housing is, it is shrinking pretty fast,” says Thomas Lawler, an independent housing economist.

Some of the uptick in household formation is likely to come from the leading edge of the echo baby boomers, who have been waiting for the economy to recover before striking out on their own, says William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution. That is likely to fuel an increase in demand for both rental apartments and starter homes.

The portion of people moving across the country has fallen to the lowest level since World War II, he adds. That is a sign that many people have put their lives on hold because of the weak economy.

“When things do pick up, there will be this pent-up demand for everything involved with starting a household,” Mr. Frey says.

Of course, when prices in healthier regions begin to rise, many would-be sellers who have sat on the sidelines could begin putting homes on the market, muting the price gains at first, says Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Even so, she expects home prices to stabilize and begin to strengthen over the next two or three years.

There also are some powerful demographic cross-currents worth considering. The first baby boomers turned 65 in January, an age when demand for new homes falls and many begin to think about downsizing. “The baby-boom generation pushed prices up as they got older,” says Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography at the University of Southern California. But in the coming years, “boomers will start flooding the market on the supply side” with larger homes, while fueling new demand for smaller properties with more services and amenities.

Affordability

Rising home prices made renting cheaper than buying in many parts of the country. But that dynamic has begun to change: Housing affordability, as measured by the ratio of median home prices to median household incomes, has fallen below pre-housing bubble levels in just over two-thirds of the country, according to an analysis of more than 380 metro areas by Moody’s Analytics.

Renting is still cheaper than buying in most markets, but rising rents and falling house prices mean that, in some areas, this won’t be the case for long. Buying a home is already cheaper than renting in Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit and Orlando, Fla., according to Moody’s Analytics. In other markets, including Dallas, Las Vegas and Sacramento, Cailf., the equation is likely to soon turn in favor of homeownership if current trends persist, the firm says.

In Ann Arbor, Mich., where home prices fell 11.2% between 2007 and 2010, according to Fiserv Case-Shiller, housing affordability has risen well above historical levels, according to Moody’s Analytics.

That is good news for home buyers such as Steven Upton, a 42-year-old photographer, who in June will close on four-bedroom brick house on 10 acres in an upscale community in Ann Arbor. Mr. Upton paid $400,000 for the home, which previously listed for $600,000. “It’s a tremendous deal,” he says.

Before buying a house, it is wise to compare rental prices for similar properties. To be ultraconservative, wait until the monthly outlays, including taxes and insurance, are equal. You also could factor in the tax savings of owning, which would make buying more attractive even if the gross monthly outlay is slightly higher.

Employment

The strength of the housing market depends largely on the economy. Rising incomes and increased employment tend to give more would-be buyers confidence and buying power. For now, job growth remains sluggish: On Friday the Labor Department reported that just 54,000 jobs were created in May, far below expectations.

But signs of how a stronger job market could fuel housing demand are evident in the Dallas metro area, which added 83,100 new jobs in the 12 months ending in April—the largest gain in the nation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Dallas never had a big housing boom or bust and has benefited from trade with Mexico, a strong telecommunications sector and a central location.

The opportunities for a job with more responsibility drew Duane and Linda Elmer to Dallas from Des Moines, Iowa, where Mr. Elmer was a banker for nine years. The couple has agreed to pay $415,000 for a four-bedroom, four-bath house with a Jacuzzi and pool. Their Des Moines home, purchased nine years ago for $410,000, is on the market for $390,000. “We are willing to take the loss for the opportunity to live in a more diverse community and to take a job with greater breadth of responsibilities,” Mr. Elmer says.

Borrowers like the Elmers who are relocating for job opportunities are a big driver of home sales in nearby Plano, Texas, says Harry Ridge, a real-estate agent. He says such sales accounted for 20% of his business last year.

A similar influx of job seekers is fueling housing demand in the Washington area, where 25,700 new jobs were added in the 12 months since April 2010. Washington was the only one of the 20 cities tracked by Standard & Poor’s and Case-Shiller that saw home prices rise both on a month-to-month and year-over-year basis.

Credit

Mortgage financing remains plentiful for borrowers with good credit scores and solid employment histories. But for borrowers who don’t fit traditional lending standards, getting a loan can still be nearly impossible. In the first quarter, about 10% of banks tightened standards for nontraditional loans, according to the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, higher down-payment standards are locking some would-be buyers out of the market. Just 35% of renters have the minimum 3.5% down payment needed for an FHA loan on the median-priced home in their market, according to a recent survey by Zelman Associates.

Credit is likely to remain tight for at least the next six months, says Clifford Rossi, a former Citigroup Inc. consumer-lending executive who teaches at the University of Maryland.

But conditions should improve over time, he says: “There’s no question that it will gradually get easier.”

That will be welcome news to borrowers like Greg Silver. The 50-year-old real-estate developer would like to buy a second home, but hasn’t been able to secure a jumbo mortgage because his income consists of capital gains from sales of the properties he develops. Mr. Silver closed three sales in the past 12 months, netting him a total of more than $25 million, but didn’t record any capital gains in 2008 and 2009. Sure, he could use some of that cash to buy a home outright, but he would prefer to mortgage it, get the tax deduction and keep his cash free for business purposes.

“It’s a little devastating,” says Mr. Silver, who is living in Greenwich, Conn.

Psychology

The long-term case for buying over renting remains in force. Yet nowadays, “People are simply scared,” says Aaron Galvin, chief executive of Luxury Living Chicago, which finds rental apartments for wealthy clients.

Mr. Galvin says he has seen a 30% increase in business in the last year, driven by would-be home buyers who can afford to purchase a property but are choosing not to do so.

The portion of Americans who believe homeownership is a safe investment dropped to 66% in the first quarter from 83% in 2006, according to Fannie Mae, the government-controlled mortgage company.

But it isn’t clear whether the fear will result in a prolonged change in attitudes, as during the Great Depression, or have little long-term impact, as was the case for the housing bust that shook California and the Northeast in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Eighty-seven percent of people surveyed by Fannie Mae said they preferred owning to renting, though access to schools, control over one’s environment and other quality-of-life issues now are seen as the key benefits of homeownership, with building wealth and other financial factors viewed as less important. In addition, 67% of renters surveyed by Zelman Associates said they planned to buy a home in the next five years.

Jeffrey Connor may be a bellwether for the future of the housing market. The 40-year-old finance director at a corporate law firm says he thought briefly about buying a house when he moved to Chicago from Washington in October. But he opted instead to rent a luxury two-story apartment in downtown Chicago for $3,559 a month. Mr. Connor says it will take substantial job growth and a sharp drop in foreclosures to convince him to buy.

“The market is clearly soft,” he says, “especially when we consider it good news that the unemployment rate is hovering around 9% instead of 10%.” Mr. Connor says he isn’t worried about missing out on today’s low interest rates and will consider buying once unemployment falls to 6%.

Other buyers are showing less willingness to wait for the absolute perfect time to buy. Doug Yearly, chief executive of luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc., told investors in May that “some of our clients, after waiting so long, are starting to move off the fence and into the market, motivated by attractive pricing, low interest rates and, most important, the desire to take the next step in their lives. The family with elementary-school kids and a puppy when the housing debacle began five years ago now has middle-school kids and the dog weighs 80 pounds.”

More optimism rising on Housing Market

Dale Heinemann — Wed, 09 Feb 2011 16:07:18 +0000

10 reasons to be bullish on housing

Commentary: Headwinds aside, still plenty of optimism

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Almost five full years into the housing downturn, it’s still cool to be bearish on real estate. But cool isn’t always right.

Despite headwinds such as looming shadow inventory, a lackluster job market and geopolitical instability, there are plenty of reasons why rose-colored glasses may be the real-estate eyewear of choice.

And while it may finally be time to be bullish on housing, there is one huge caveat.

The local bottom that the broad housing market experienced in April 2009 may yet be surpassed to the downside. If it is, housing bears will pound their chests, stubborn pessimism vindicated. They will be mistaking the trees for the forest. This recovery, which in many areas remains in full force, has been, and will continue to be, highly local in nature.

More home buyers paying cash

Increasingly, home buyers are selling investments to raise cash to pay for real estate, sensing a bottom in the housing market.

Fundamentally strong markets have thrived, while weak ones have languished. National, state, and even city-level indicators have been masking trends that are ongoing on a neighborhood level. This will continue, and those that ignore it will miss out on countless opportunities. Read Minyanville’s “Searching for a Real Estate Recovery.”

So without further ado, 10 reasons to be bullish on housing:

1. Jobs. Housing follows jobs. Period. And while the job market is still bunk in many areas, pockets of strength are emerging. After Google Inc. announced it would be hiring as many as 6,000 new employees, the Silicon Valley powerhouse received 75,000 applications in two weeks. The company is looking to retain talent in its fight against local rivals like Apple Inc. , Salesforce.com and Yahoo Inc. , along with social media upstarts like Facebook, Twitter, and Zynga. If housing really does follow jobs, the San Francisco Bay Area may prove to be a bright spot in 2011.

2. Jobs. At the risk of being redundant, housing follows jobs. Consumer confidence is close to reaching last spring’s high point, the most optimistic the U.S. has felt since 2008. And while hiring hasn’t restarted in earnest, firing has slowed to a drip. If you haven’t been fired, chances are your job is reasonably secure. Job security drives optimism, planning for the future and … home buying. For more on employment, see Minyanville’s Why the January Jobs Report Is Alarming.

3. Pent-up demand among young adults. Consider this: 2006 college grads entered the labor market just as home prices began to collapse. Those who still have a job kicked and scratched their way through the Great Recession and are now 27, perhaps married or getting there and kids may be on the horizon. Some were even smart enough to save some money. According to a graph produced by economist Tam Lawler and posted on Calculated Risk, today’s young adults are under-represented as homeowners compared to historical norms, and a disproportionately large chunk lives at home. As the job market crawls back to life, this trend is likely to reverse. And if the apartment market’s snappy performance in 2010 is any indication, it already has. Read “More people choosing to rent, not buy, their home.”

4. Foreclosures. Frankly, I’m getting tired of people claiming that an impending flood of distressed real estate is going to torpedo home prices. If you’re making that case, ask yourself if you really, truly have any idea what you’re talking about. Banks are rational actors, and as much as Bank of America Corp. , J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. , Citigroup , Wells Fargo and the rest are demonized, they rarely willfully destroy the value of their own assets — which is exactly what flooding the market with bank-owned properties would do. Coupled with political pressure and an ever-increasing maze of foreclosure litigation gumming up the repossession process, foreclosed inventory will continue at its steady stream. It will take years (around four based on current estimates) to work through shadow inventory, but there will be no flood.

5. Inflation. While much is made of inflation in the media, few pundits actually understand it. Inflation expectations, not inflation, are what we should be worried about. Things get scary when consumers start believing that prices are rising, or about to rise. Rational economic actions take hold, and rather than filling their tanks when empty, drivers fill whenever they pass a gas station. The expectation of higher prices, not higher prices themselves, is what changes economic actions. Rising inflation expectations pull demand forward, pushing up prices in an inconvenient self-fulfilling prophesy. Historically, real estate has been a rather good hedge against inflation. As people start to get nervous about inflation, they buy real estate. For more on how good a hedge real estate has historically been against inflation, read “If You Fear Inflation, Should You Buy Real Estate?” on Minyanville.

6. Higher rents and low interest rates. Ask a prospective tenant in a major metropolitan area how the apartment search is going and the response will not be pleasant. Rents are rising, inventory is down, and landlords are back in the driver’s seat. And despite a recent bounce, interest rates remain historically low. High rents and low interest rates push would-be renters towards buying, particularly in areas with job markets that are relatively less weak than the country at-large.

7. A booming apartment market. Investors are snatching up multifamily properties as positive demographic trends, low interest rates, and perceived values attract professional and amateur buyers alike. Homeownership is at a 10-year low, young adults are moving out of their parents’ basements and into apartments, and leverage is fantastically cheap. What more could an apartment buyer want? The multifamily space typically recovers first, and if history is rhyming in even the smallest way, this is good news for housing.

8. Investor appetite remains strong. From fedora-hat donning, Hawaiian-shirt wearing, clipboard-scribbling, earpiece-whispering professional investors at the courthouse steps, to vulture funds armed with hundreds of millions of dollars, investor demand for real estate remains robust. Distressed opportunities — across all types of real estate — have come to market slower than expected, which means buyers have had more time to hit the pavement and raise money. With limited opportunities, competing buyers are driving up prices of distressed assets: For every well-priced foreclosure there are a dozen all-cash buyers looking for a deal. And don’t forget the baby boomers, the first of which turn 65 this year. While many are eyeing trading down into a smaller, retirement-friendly home, even more are looking for reliable fixed income to pay for rounds of golf and tennis lessons. More than a few gray-hairs view real estate as their path to comfort during the golden years. Read “Cash Buyers Boost Battered Housing Markets” on The Wall Street Journal.

9. The stock market. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average back above 12,000 and the S&P 500 topping 1,300 for the first time since mid-2008, IRAs, 401(k)s and trading accounts are feeling fuller than they have in years. The wealth effect is in full effect, as buyers look to sell stock for a down payment and the confidence to pull the trigger on a new home.

10. Confidence. If you’ve made it this far without either scrolling down to question my sanity on the message boards or falling asleep, I salute you. And for the precious few readers who are still with me, consider this very important question: Do you feel better or worse about the U.S. economy, and more importantly your own personal economy than you did two years ago? This is not a political statement. Challenges remain, to be sure, but we Americans are a stubbornly resilient, optimistic bunch. Confidence is relative, and for a country that has been to economic hell and back since 2008, we are in remarkably better shape.

Confidence in the present builds confidence in the future, and confidence of all types increases risk-taking activities. Admittedly when you have seen the depths of despair, a single ray of dim light can feel like high noon, but it doesn’t matter. Confidence is a trajectory, a transitory voyage through time that is more accurately measured against where you just were than looking at the last time you were here. The fact that most people believe that we’re no longer headed for apocalyptic collapse is, as they say, a good thing.

Andrew Jeffery is a principal of Cirios Real Estate and Minyanville contributor

New Mexico Economy Expanding according to Fed

Dale Heinemann — Thu, 13 Jan 2011 19:47:55 +0000

Fed’s Beige Book sees continued expansion in New Mexico economy

New Mexico Business Weekly

Date: Thursday, January 13, 2011, 11:12am MST

Manufacturing, Retailing & Restaurants

Enlarge Image

Sponsored Links
	American Express � Savings Accounts FDIC Insured Savings Accounts with No Monthly Fees or Minimum Bala… PersonalSavings.AmericanExpress.com
	Microsoft� Cloud Power Top Firms are Saving Money by Moving to the Cloud. Learn How You C… www.Microsoft.com/Cloud
	Business On Main: Online Community Free Online Tools and Resources To Help Start Or Grow Your Busines… www.BusinessOnMain.com

Related News

The economy in northern New Mexico and six neighboring states “continued to expand in late November and December, despite slower construction activity,” the U.S. Federal Reserve reported Wednesday in its latest “Beige Book” survey of the region’s business executives.

In particular, Fed officials noted “strong consumer spending over the holidays” that “lifted retail sales and expectations for future spending.”

The report covers the Fed’s 10th District, which includes northern New Mexico and some or all of six neighboring states. The nation is divided into 12 Fed districts.

The 10th District is based in Kansas City. Each district released its own Beige Book Wednesday covering a six-week period.

The Beige Book is based on interviews with a sample of business executives representing key industries in each district. The reports are anecdotal and do not contain statistics, but they are widely followed and help the Fed to set national economic policy.

The 10th District report said that the region’s “manufacturing activity improved amid a rise in new orders and stronger durable goods production, and some plant managers planned to increase capital spending and hire more workers.”

It said that residential and commercial construction “remained weak, though commercial real estate sales edged up and vacancy rates dipped slightly.”

The region’s bankers, meanwhile, “reported stable banking conditions with some improvements in loan quality.”

The energy activity “expanded further, and incomes improved for the agricultural sector,” the Beige Book said.

The report said that several of the business leaders it interviewed “expected to increase employment.”

With raw materials prices “continuing to climb, more manufacturers expected to pass through higher input costs to finished goods prices; however, most retailers did not plan to raise selling prices in the coming months,” the report said.

The Fed’s 10th District includes northern New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming as well as western Missouri.

Nationwide, the Fed said that “economic activity continued to expand moderately from November through December” in almost all Fed districts.

Formally known as the “Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District,” the Beige Book is published eight times a year. The nickname refers to the color of its cover.

Mark Harden of the Denver Business Journal, an affiliated publication, compiled this report.

Come Visit Santa Fe in February for Winter Fiesta

Dale Heinemann — Wed, 12 Jan 2011 22:33:08 +0000

Santa Fe plans to party with all kinds of specials

By Max Harrold, The Gazette January 12, 2011 2:42 PM

Stand features a wide variety of local vegatables at the Farmer’s Market in Santa Fe, New Mexico.

Photograph by: Robert Reid Hepler, McClathy-Tribune

Santa Fe Winter Fiesta

The Santa Fe Convention and Visitors Bureau is offering discounts during the city’s first annual Santa Fe Winter Fiesta, Feb. 18 to 27. Special events and evening parties are planned for each day of the festival, and businesses in the capital of New Mexico are offering savings. A $20 Fiesta Lanyard provides savings at restaurants, hotels and cultural institutions. It also can help you get discounted artwork, lodging, lift tickets (Ski Santa Fe just outside the city has a base elevation of 3,154 metres), meals, purchases at museum shops and free entrance into many of the nightly Fiesta parties. You can get it through ticketssantafe.com.

The Fiesta kicks off Friday, Feb. 18, with an evening-long Live 505 Bar Crawl with no cover charge for lanyard holders and specials at participating restaurants and bars. GPS Snowshoe Scavenger Hunts follow Feb. 19 to 21, a Moonlight Cross-Country Ski trip in the amazing Valles Caldera will be held Feb. 19, and a Guided Native American Cultural Tour to Puye Cliffs is set for Feb. 22. The Fiesta wraps up with the 14th Annual Artfeast, Feb. 25 to 27. The event includes the Edible Art Tour on Feb. 25, Fashion Luncheons, Art of Home Tours, a Gentleman’s Lunch and an Artists’ Champagne Brunch & Auction. Other Winter Fiesta specials including discounted hotel packages are still being developed. Round-trip flights from Montreal to Santa Fe are available for $565 including taxes. For more information, visit www.santafewinterfiesta.com.

For information about visiting Santa Fe and to order a free Santa Fe Visitors Guide, call the Santa Fe Convention and Visitors Bureau at 800-777-2489 or visit www.santafe.org.

New Mexico Water Resources to have new Administrator

Dale Heinemann — Wed, 05 Jan 2011 18:40:30 +0000

Incoming state engineer will face a changing role

Staci Matlock | The New Mexican
Posted: Monday, January 03, 2011
State Engineer John D’Antonio once likened his job of administering New Mexico’s water resources to navigating a field of land mines.

“You want to make enough progress that you keep momentum going forward without going so far that you step on a land mine, like a lawsuit, that stops everything,” D’Antonio said a couple of years ago.

D’Antonio has hit more than one legal land mine during his tenure refereeing over New Mexico’s water, a natural resource critical to the state’s economic and ecological well-being.

Newly inaugurated Gov. Susana Martinez has yet to name a new state engineer.

Martinez’s search committee is chaired by Albuquerque developer and contractor Jack Westman. Search committee members include former environment secretary Peter Maggiore of Los Alamos; Albuquerque lawyer Colin Hunter; Taos County rancher Erminio Martinez; John Jones, chief operating officer for Entranosa Water and Wastewater Association in Albuquerque; and Corrales lawyer Deborah Peacock.

Sen. Peter Wirth, D-Santa Fe, said the primary duty of the state engineer is administering water rights, complying with federal river interstate compacts “and continuing to push forward on adjudications.”

Adjudication is the legal process by which a court declares water rights. New Mexico prioritizes water rights on who used water first, also known as “first in time, first in right.” Less than a third of the water rights in the state have been adjudicated. The most senior water rights, in general, belong to tribes and farmers, while towns and utilities have the most junior rights.

“I do think the state engineer’s job is changing because state is changing,” said Wirth, an advisory member on the Senate Water and Natural Resources Committee for the last seven years. “Our population is growing, and we’re experiencing more extreme climate change, so that makes this job that much tougher because we’re dealing with a finite resource.”

“What a lot of people don’t realize is that municipalities are new players at the table,” Wirth said. “They have junior water rights. So under a system of priority administration, when there’s not enough water, junior water rights get shut off first.”

Some people think D’Antonio has overstepped his legal bounds as state engineer. His office is facing two challenges in the state Supreme Court — one over his attempt to regulate water distribution in dry years, and the other over permits issued for private domestic wells.

D’Antonio once said that without better rules for administering water in the state during drought, there’s little but “chaos.”

Wirth said the state engineer has historically been an active player in New Mexico’s economic development. “What’s challenging is it was often done with water rights that weren’t fully adjudicated,” he said. “It is a balance between economic development and water resources.”

Intel in Rio Rancho, for example, wouldn’t exist without water, and the company tried recently to cut a new deal with the state to meet its obligations for water rights.

Cities such as Albuquerque and Santa Fe cannot grow without water.

They compete with tribes and farmers for senior water rights in the state.

New Mexico has to meet those needs and still deliver water promised to Texas from the Pecos River and Rio Grande under interstate stream compacts.

Paula Garcia, executive director of the New Mexico Acequia Association, which advocates for many of the senior water-rights holders in the state, said it was “imperative that the next state engineer be sympathetic to irrigation in New Mexico.”

“One could say that water policy is socio-economic policy,” Garcia wrote via e-mail. “The role of state engineer is not merely to quantify and allocate water from a purely technical point of view. He is also the chief regulator that determines the extent that water is a marketable commodity.”

Contact Staci Matlock at 986-3055 or smatlock@sfnewmexican.com.

2010 Santa Fe Economic Review

Dale Heinemann — Tue, 04 Jan 2011 20:43:20 +0000

Cafe Paris was one of the victims of the economy in 2010; others included A La Mesa and the Railyard Restaurant. – Luis Sánchez Saturno/The New Mexican

Charter Bank of Santa Fe was purchased by Texas-based Beal Financial Corp. The bank ran into loan problems. Charter was no the only Santa Fe bank to find trouble in 2010. – Clyde Mueller/The New Mexican

The new Luxx Hotel on Marcy Street was one of two hotels that opened in Santa Fe in 2010. The city’s hotel/motel occupancy rates improved slightly in the year. – Luis Sánchez Saturno/The New Mexican

Santa Fe’s small manufacturing sector got a boost in May when Caterpillar Emissions Solutions, a subsidiary of Caterpillar Corp., bought Clean Air Systems, a manufacturer of emission-control devices started in 1993 by Michael and Louise Roach. – Katharine Egli/The New Mexican

Bob Quick | The New Mexican
Posted: Tuesday, January 04, 2011 – 1/4/11

Business news made headlines in 2010, mainly because of the weak economy and persistent unemployment, which was the biggest business story of them all, especially if you lost your job and tried looking for another.

In Santa Fe, the October Labor Market Review indicated that the local unemployment rate was 7 percent, compared with 6.9 percent a year ago. The highest unemployment rate in Santa Fe in 2010 was 7.4 percent in March.

Through October, there was a loss of 100 jobs in Santa Fe in 2010.

For that same time period, three industries gained jobs. They were education and health services, government, and miscellaneous other services.

Losses of 100 jobs each were reported by professional and business services, wholesale trade and construction.

“The Santa Fe job market has been weak for over two years but is improving,” according to the state Labor Market Review.

But Larry Waldman, an economist formerly with The University of New Mexico’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research, said recovery will take years.

Retail

Vacancies popped up downtown and in shopping centers around town. Closures included Simply Santa Fe on the Plaza, which was owned by Armand Ortega. Negotiations are said to be under way for a new tenant.

Also closing were several restaurants, including A La Mesa, Railyard Restaurant and Cafe Paris. One downtown businessman said he’d heard more restaurants will close in this first quarter of 2011.

El Nido also shut its doors but promises to reopen soon. The Pink Adobe shuttered its doors after filing for bankruptcy but then, happily, was taken over by the Hoback family, which had started the Pink and vowed to keep it open for good.

Also, Whole Hog Cafe is moving from Cerrillos Road to Guadalupe Street.

In downtown Santa Fe, the Nancy Brown Custom Jeweler shop closed, and other jewelry shops experienced problems with the steadily rising price of gold. A higher price of gold for jewelers, of course, means a higher price for buyers.

Among the new galleries on Canyon Road is Vivo Contemporary.

Southwest Cash and Carry, a wholesale grocers supply store, also closed, but could reopen in Santa Fe in a different location.

Stores opening in 2010, included a second Sunflower Farmers Market, several cupcake bakers and two frozen yogurt businesses. And don’t forget the gelato shop at DeVargas Center.

Also opening was Monte’s of Santa Fe, a cigar, pipe and tobacco store near downtown.

Sienna’s Furniture on Cerrillos Road celebrated its first anniversary in 2010.

In the works for local retail are the new Super Walmart and a renovation of Santa Fe Place that could result in another name change for the shopping center formerly known as Villa Linda Mall.

Given the strength of the recession and the need to economize, it was no surprise that some new thrift stores opened in 2010. Among them were Back to the Rack and The Good Stuff.

Banking

Several Santa Fe banks ran into problems in 2010 and found themselves either being taken over by the feds or following orders from Washington, D.C.

Among them was Charter Bank of Santa Fe, which in January was purchased by Texas-based Beal Financial Corp. for an undisclosed amount after the bank ran into problems with its commercial and residential loans.

The new Charter Bank assumed all deposits of the former Charter Bank.

Beal’s $10 billion in assets were apparently what allowed it to take over Charter when no New Mexico bank could.

A few months later, federal regulators determined that New Mexico’s oldest bank, First National Bank of Santa Fe, had to reduce its commercial real-estate lending as part of an agreement with regulators.

First National Bank President and CEO Gregory Ellena said at the time of the feds’ intervention in the bank that the bank was profitable and well capitalized.

At about the same time, Los Alamos National Bank, the region’s largest, signed a similar agreement.

The Los Alamos National Bank plan called for the bank to come up with a new staffing plan for loans and to name a new senior lending officer.

First State Bancorporation, the parent company of First Community Bank, reported difficulties with non-performing real-estate loans and entered into talks with some investors. But the bank remained independent at year’s end.

Smith’s

Smith’s and its employees union started negotiating a new contract in May, but it wasn’t until October that they made a deal.

The agreement covers 2,000 New Mexican workers in 26 grocery stores and 11 fuel centers. The four-year contract was unanimously approved by workers.

A union representative said he was happy about reaching an agreement “in these hard economic times. Our employees will enjoy the best benefits around over the next four years.”

The president of Smith’s said the deal provided workers “one of the best total compensation packages in our industry.”

The union, United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1564, also reached an agreement with Albertsons workers.

Real estate

Santa Fe real-estate sales were mixed in 2010, with the number of sales rising for the most part as prices dropped.

In the city in the second quarter, the median sales price dropped from $307,500 to $288,000, according to the Santa Fe Association of Realtors. Prices in the county also fell, from $450,000 to $411,250.

In the third quarter, sales in the city of Santa Fe increased a little as the median sales price rose about 11 percent to $318,000.

The price in the county, meanwhile, fell to $389,000, according to the Realtors group.

Foreclosure issues played a part in local real-estate sales, but no satisfactory information about Santa Fe foreclosures was available.

Alan Ball, a local title company executive, said in his real-estate blog that Santa Fe real estate at the end of 2010 was “only slightly better off” than it was in the summer of 2009 — the depth of the downturn in the market.

American Eagle

The airline disappointed local travelers when on Aug. 23 it reduced the number of flights between Santa Fe and Dallas/Fort Worth to two round trips per day.

The discontinued flights were 2760, which left Santa Fe at 8:15 a.m., and 2761, which left DFW at 7:40 p.m.

Jim Montman, Santa Fe airport manager, protested the move, saying that the early flight to DFW “was our most popular flight” because it allowed for timely connections in Dallas to the East Coast.

The late flight from Dallas eliminated the ability for travelers to get to Santa Fe in the evening, he added.

American Eagle said it plans to resume the dropped flights April 5.

American Eagle still has two daily round-trip flights to and from Santa Fe and Dallas and another flight to and from Santa Fe and Los Angeles.

Minimum wage

Santa Fe’s minimum wage — $9.85 an hour — looks like it will stay the same this year as it did last year.

A city employee familiar with the wage issue said, “It doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere.” The final decision will come in mid-January.

The city’s mandated minimum pay is linked to a government measure of price inflation. If inflation remains low, as it is now, the wage floor is likely to remain unchanged.

Even though the wage has been in effect since June 24, 2004, some business owners still don’t like it.

“I had to go from $15 to $17 per car wash,” said Squeaky CleanCar Wash owner Jay Ritter. “It also cut down on my volume.”

Manufacturing

Santa Fe’s small manufacturing sector — with only about 800 workers — made the front page in May when the giant Caterpillar Emissions Solutions, a subsidiary of Caterpillar Corp., bought Clean Air Systems, a manufacturer of emission-control devices.

Clean Air was started in 1993 by Michael and Louise Roach and employed about 30 people at the time it was purchased.

Caterpillar said it planned to expand and hire more people because the company expected an increase in business.

Another local business that changed hands in 2010 was Santa Fe Southern Railway, the short-line railroad that runs between Santa Fe and Lamy.

It was bought out by the Australian company STI-GLOBAL. STI provides solutions to rail-safety issues in Europe, Australia and the U.S.

Purchase prices were not available for either transaction.

Tourism

Santa Fe welcomed two new hotels, Hyatt Place on one side of town and Luxx Boutique Hotel on the other.

The city’s hotel/motel occupancy rates were slightly better in 2010 than in 2009.

Another hotel, the Santa Claran, opened on Santa Clara Pueblo land near Española. The property has
124 rooms and suites.

Contact Bob Quick at 986-3011 or bobquick@sfnewmexican.com.

Great Article on the Economic Benefits of Private Western Trout Hatcheries

Dale Heinemann — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 19:35:15 +0000

See the Video below the article of our recent stocking of the Rio Ojo Caliente from one of the Colorado Hatcheries!

Private Fish Hatcheries Promote Thousands of Jobs and Billions in Income in the West

FORT COLLINS – A recently completed study by researchers at Colorado State University showed that angler spending supported by the Aquacultural Suppliers of Recreational Fish (ASRF) in the Western region of the United States contribute about $1.9 billion in output and more than 26,000 jobs to the economy of the states in the region. The Western region includes Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming.

Results showed that every dollar of recreational fish sales can be traced to $36 of economic activity, and every $1 million spent on ASRF products is associated with nearly 500 jobs in the Western region. Locally, this implies that production from Colorado recreational fish producers results in an estimated total economic contribution of more than a quarter-billion dollars and about 3,500 jobs.

The research team collected data from 173 private businesses that raise fish for recreational stocking, as well as a sample of their first point-of-sale customers (fishing clubs, dude ranches, etc.) and anglers. Spending information from these three groups was used with a regional economic model that allowed researchers to trace the economic activity associated with the proportion of recreational angling directly supported by the ASRF industry. The study showed the biggest impacts come from supporting recreational angling in freshwater streams, rivers and lakes across the West.

“The difficult part of the analysis was estimating forward linkages from the suppliers of recreational fish to the anglers,” said Craig Bond, resource economist in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at Colorado State and principal investigator on the project. “We asked the first point-of-sale customers to estimate the share of their revenue directly related to private fish stocking and used this data in conjunction with the angler survey to estimate spending impacts.”

ASRF producers account for $53 million in direct sales in the Western region. However, when accounting for the forward linkages of the industry – expenditures resulting from the use of ASRF products – the numbers grow dramatically. For example, anglers in Colorado spend, on average, $135 to $138 per angler day, a figure that rises to $179 per angler day in California. Combined with an estimated 7 million ASRF-supported angler days in the Western United States per year using the survey data, this results in about $1 billion in annual expenditures from anglers directly attributable to aquacultural stocking activity done by private businesses. Accounting for “ripple effects,” or the downstream effects of angler expenditures on other industries such as hotels, gasoline stations and grocery stores as well as those industries’ suppliers, the total effect is just under $2 billion in total economic activity.

“Many people are likely aware of the production of fish for food,” Bond said, “but less well known is the contribution made by private aquacultural producers in the West to the recreational fishing opportunities so prized by residents and visitors to the region. Those producers have a significant economic presence in the Western region.”

For more information about the study, visit http://dare.colostate.edu/tools/aquaculture.aspx.

The Economic Contributions of the Aquacultural Suppliers of Recreational Fish (ASRF) study was sponsored by the Western Regional Aquaculture Center (WRAC), whose mission is to support aquaculture research, development, demonstration and education to enhance viable and profitable U.S. aquaculture production for the benefit of consumers, producers, service industries and the American economy.

Major Fly Fishing Boot Company expands Line

Dale Heinemann — Sat, 20 Nov 2010 16:58:32 +0000

Korkers ready to move beyond its fly fishing roots

Published: Friday, November 19, 2010, 6:58 PM Updated: Friday, November 19, 2010, 7:07 PM

Allan Brettman, The Oregonian

Korkers, a boot designed for sure footedness underwater, has been evolving from the day it was conceived five decades ago in Grants Pass.

The footwear has morphed from a crude sandal that helped fly fisherman stay upright to a sophisticated boot with interchangeable soles designed to perform on land as well as in the water. And now Korkers is ready for new terrain.

Under fresh leadership and with tweaked “adaptable traction” technology, Korkers is rolling out its first boot next year designed for use on icy terrain — not mountain climbing necessarily, but for everyday use in cold-weather climates where snow and ice are common.

This new offering marks a significant departure from the core product for which it has built its reputation over the past 50 years. And while early indications suggest retail buyers may be ready to embrace the new boots, the people who really matter — consumers — have yet to vote with their wallets.

The success or failure of the bid is critical to Korkers’ future, said chief executive Sean Beers. But he also predicted the small firm is up for the challenge.

“We’re a scrappy company,” Beers said. “We understand what it takes to do more with less.”

In the two years he has worked for the privately held company, Beers has guided Korkers to its new product line as well as a fundamental redesign of its flagship fly-fishing footwear.

Korkers got its start in southern Oregon in the 1950s. Sherman Smith, a tinkerer, angler and attorney, experimented with foot-shaped tire scraps to create studded sandals for a better grip while standing on slippery rocks in sometimes fast, swirling river water while he was fly fishing.

Grants Pass sporting goods shops began selling the spiked sandals in 1958. Unexpectedly, dock workers and loggers started seeking out and buying the footwear, too.

Company lore has it that Smith’s wife, Mary Louise, is credited with coming up with the product name. She looked at one iteration of the product and said, “That’s a real corker,” according a 1998 newspaper story.

The same story said ownership passed to Smith’s son, Doug Smith, in 1982, and that about 35,000 studded sandals a year were sold in 1998.

Ownership passed earlier this decade to John Chaney, the former owner of a computer management services company familiar with business startups, and to his son Brian Chaney, who had joined the company as a sales representative. They formed Omni Trax Technology Inc., which owns the Korkers brand.

Korkers Footwear LLC

Ownership: Privately held brand of Omni Trax Technology Inc.

Location: 1239 S.E. 12th Ave., Portland

Founded: 1958 in Grants Pass

Chief executive: Sean Beers

Sales director: Brian Chaney

Product creation director: Matt Martin

2010 sales (projected): $2.4 million

Employees: 10

North American dealers: 250

Manufacturing: Dongguan, China

Brian Chaney, skilled in sales but not shoe production, sought an expert’s help in navigating Asian factory production, supply chains and footwear marketing plans.

Through references, he found Beers, then a 12-year employee of Columbia Sportswear Co. who had been that company’s general manager for footwear and, before that, for its Sorel brand.

As it turns out, Beers says he had been trying to interest Columbia shoe designers in tearing apart Korkers boots and crafting their own version of interchangeable sole technology. That didn’t ever happen. So Beers, with a new title and a partial ownership in Korkers, tore apart the whole company.

One of his first tasks was altering the technology of a boot that already had a following among the fly fishing cognoscenti.

“Perhaps the most high-tech wading boots on the market,” the 2010 Fly Fish America Gear Guide says of Korkers’ $180 “Guide” boot.

The company had increasingly become known among fly fishermen for its interchangeable sole technology. An angler can hike to a stream with a rubber, lugged sole on a Korkers boot and then, with a metal tool and typically with the boot off the foot, change into a sole — felt or spiked — suitable for better grip in the water. The boot is designed to drain water when its wearer moves back onto land.

Beers, a fly fisherman familiar with the product, wanted to change the boot so that it didn’t need the tool and had an improved sole over the previous model. He also wanted to shore up the company’s China-based production and North American distribution and sales.

Matt Martin, with 15 years at Nike, Adidas America and Columbia Sportswear, was among the first full-time hires on the 10-person staff that works in makeshift offices next to the company’s product warehouse in southeast Portland.

Martin has overseen production at Korkers factory in Dongguan, China. And he has worked with two free-lance shoe designers to change the fly fishing boots and design the new cold weather line.

View full sizeMotoya Nakamura/The OregonianIn the small but passionate sporting goods segment of flying fishing, Korkers has built a loyal core of customers. The company is known for its interchangeable soles including lugged rubber, studded felt and studs-only.

Now, the fly fishing sole can be popped on or off without a tool and without removing the boot from the foot. The fly-fishing boots retail for $100 to $190.

“Their new stuff is just a way big improvement,” said Lance Kaufmann of Kaufmann’s Streamborn Inc., which has fly fishing shops in Tigard, Seattle and Bellevue. “It’s going to push them.”

At the FlyFishing Retailer World Trade Expo in September, the company’s “Chrome” boot was given the 2010 “Dealers Choice Award,” bestowed on the most promising new product.

This year, Korkers expects about $2.4 million in sales. About 80 percent from fishing boots, about 16 percent from products with industrial applications, and the remainder from outdoor boots.

Korkers claims about 20 percent of the $10 million in nationwide sales for premium fly fishing boots and footwear.

It’s a market dominated by Simms Fishing Products Corp., of Bozeman, Mont., Kaufmann said. Redington Tackle & Apparel Co. of Bainbridge Island, Wash., is a major player, too, he said.

Korkers, though, expects its cold-weather boots as well as future outdoor boots to be the game changers.

Company projections for 2014, call for nearly $8 million in sales. That’s more than triple this year’s sales.

While the company projects fishing footwear sales to grow 65 percent, it predicts a whopping 420 percent growth in the outdoor market — from about $170,000 now to about $4 million.

Forty stores of a major Canadian-based outdoor sports retailer has committed to carrying the product in 40 of its stores when it’s introduced next July, Martin said. Other retailers such as Cabela’s, Bass Pro Shops and Gander Mountain are expected to sell the outdoor line as well.

“Those guys are already some of our best customers,” Beers said. “We believe they’ll carry the prodcut extensions in the ice business.”

The greater growth of the outdoor line could come from interchange soles for military, athletic, hunting or watersports applications, Beers said.

While Korkers is focused almost exclusively on the fly fishing market at the moment, he looks forward to offering a wider product line as time goes on.

“We’re not building a business that relies on any one customer,” he said.

And while the company is branching into other areas, it will stick to its core technology, Beers said.

“We’re building a church around adaptable traction,” he said.

–Allan Brettman